fredag 30 oktober 2015

Hurdle agreeing on joint European Energy policy – Catalyzer for transition to renewables?

Introduction
Most European countries consent in moving toward renewable energy in order to reduce GHG emissions and are well aware of the need to decrease dependence on fossil fuels. However, an agreement between the European countries on how to achieve all this is weeny and endeavors in negotiating a joint EU solution for energy transition has been set upon a puzzler and inhibiting states such as Germany pursuing their own energy policies. The transnational nature of this energy transition, in defiance of these hurdles, a European energy policy agreement may possibly be the sole way forward.

Background
Even though significant contretemps apply in European energy policies and in what way an energy transition is laid down, the consensus is broad in regards of Europe’s need for a long term sustainable and environmentally friendly energy supply and the quest for a reconstruction of the energy sector embracing greater use of renewables is likewise mutual among the majority of the European countries. For example, Germany, a pioneer in the sense of speedy energy turnaround, is inevitably dependent on a rapid increment of renewables since the country target abandoning nuclear by 2020. However, the whole German Energiewende and its do-it-alone policy have been increasingly criticized by its neighboring countries as well as on EU level. (Jamasb & Pollitt, 2015) While EU commissioner Günther Oettinger strive after a common European solution nuclear power in France is hailed carbon neutral and contributes to 80 % of its electricity production while in Poland 90 % of the country’s energy stem from coal-fired plants. Different countries claim their rights to choose their own energy mix and perception of problems stemmed from the energy sector is perceived differently while economical prerequisites in order to reconstruct the energy sector vary.
(Couture et al, 2015) In order to achieve a joint energy policy in Europe and become a part of the political and legal process, sufficient funds and resources to effectively form such a grand project as a European energy transition is needed and the political will to shape and implement effective political programs is inevitable. The latter face divergences in the political realm since diversity prevail in the focused use of different energy sources in different countries. (Deloitte, 2015)


It seems that divergences politically hinder a joint European energy policy in the near future due to each country’s individual status and potential for conflict within the legal frame work appear be a factor as well facing challenges implementing an unilateral solution for individual measures. Hence the possibility of a unilateral solution looks unrealistic, at least over a perspicuous time period. It cannot be assumed that member states will yield their choice of energy mix since the cost of restructuring the energy sector is considerable and many times not in proportion to financial supposition and the perception of energy problems varies from country to country. Furthermore the need to find a common European solution and integration of energy policy might prove be a stumbling boulder for efforts by individual states and could serve as a holdback for the development of renewable energy sources as a whole. An example of this would be in the case of Germany and if the support system of EEG where to be discontinued of exclusion from European prohibition of state aid since there is no European equivalent. A joint European energy policy intended to meet the energy transition is of transnational nature and is therefore difficult to implement and solve sufficiently at national levels. The perception of problems is varying as well as the approaches on how to solve the problems parallel to a diffusion of agendas between the levels of EU political and legal community. As a result, a sway to renewables might be achieved not despite of but because of political and legal mutuality at the different levels of EU. And in the end, this dissemination mechanism of proactive national measures and response at these levels may pave way to a prosperous transition of energy in Europe.


References
Deloitte, 2015. Energy market reform in Europe. European energy and climate policies: achievements and challenges to 2020 and beyond. Acquired 2015-10-22 from
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Energy-and-Resources/gx-er-energy-market-reform-in-europe.pdf

Jamasb, T. & Pollitt, M., 2015. Electricity Market Reform in the European Union: Review of Progress toward Liberalization & Integration. The Energy Journal. Acquired 2015-10-21 from
http://www.jstor.org/stable/23297005?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents


Couture, T.D. et al., 2015. The next generation of renewable electricity policy. Acquired 2015-10-21 from http://www.svd.se/asa-romson-lovar-miljobilspremie-hela-2015

torsdag 15 oktober 2015

EV in Norway Upends Sweden on
2030 Fossil Fuel Independence

Introduction
Our neighbor country Norway with a population of 5 million has a rapid expanding electric car fleet currently accounting for 50 000 registered electric cars with nearly 25 % of all new cars being electric while Sweden with its population of 9,5 million lags behind with a fleet of around 8 000 electric cars. The difference is considerable and is most likely a result of more favorable consumer value, a different market approach and consumer attitude, a system Sweden might learn from if a car fleet not dependent on fossil fuel is desiderated in the near coming decades.

Background
In Norway, where 98 % of the electricity production comes from hydropower, one of hundred persons owns an electric car, a total of 50 000 cars positioning Norway as an EV pioneer. In Sweden that number is less than one out of thousand persons as per 2015. In order to promote sales of electric cars in Norway, incentives such as tax cuts, benefits such as free parking, exemptions of tolls and access to bus lanes, deducted VAT and free car registration charge is offered by the government who’s target is 100 000 electric cars in the country by 2020. Furthermore a Norway has a well-developed infrastructure of 7 000 free recharging stations and 300 fast and semi-fast charging stations where customers can fully charge their car within 30 minutes for a small fee. (Norsk Elbilforening, 2015) In Sweden, with a 50 % electricity production stemmed from hydropower, there is currently a grant of SEK 40 000 for purchase of an electric car. However this premium will be canceled by 2017 when a bonus-malus-system will be introduced in which purchasers of cars with high emissions pays a fee in order to finance the subvention of environmental-friendly cars. The government has a target of being non-dependent on fossil-fueled cars by 2030. (Alestig, 2015)


Discussion and conclusion
The reasons for Norway’s rapid upswing in the electric car market may possibly constitute a combination of government leveraging in order to transform the transport sector to become more environmentally friendly enabling consumers to by an electric car at a reasonable price, offering the service provided by the many charging stations and other benefits energizing the market. Another aspect is that the on top of the above Norwegians now that the electricity most likely is green coming from hydro makes their decision to switch from a conventional combustion engine car more plausible. In Sweden a grant is probably not enough to convince the populace to invest in an electric car since other non-fiscal incentives and stimuli are more or less absent. Moreover, the environmental chain is not fully optimized until potential electric car byers now for sure that charging always is accessible and that charge comes from renewables, which might not always be the case in Sweden. Swedish private and state parties need come together and work for the future of the electric cars and determines within what framework to develop and how to reform the car industry and change consumer habitude. Norway’s in some parts excessive campaign might not be tenable in the long run due to tax shortage but has evidently functioned as a powerful kick-start, a kick-start Sweden really needs in order to meet 2030 target.


References
Norsk Elbilforening, 2015. Statistikk. Acquired 2015-10-15 from
http://www.elbil.no/nyheter/statistikk

Norsk Elbilforening, 2015. The Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association. Acquired 2015-10-15 from
http://www.elbil.no/elbilforeningen/english-please/717-the-norwegian-electric-vehicle-association


Alestig, P., 2015. Näringsliv. SvD Näringsliv. Acquired 2015-10-15 from http://www.svd.se/asa-romson-lovar-miljobilspremie-hela-2015

Falter for small German energy producers?

Introduction
As a result of the decisions to phase out nuclear Germany has well earned its lead as pioneer and world champion in the arena of renewables with a remarkable growth of PV system installments over the last few years on top of a rapid 30 % yearly increase of wind power produced electricity. PV in Germany, of which mostly are smaller rooftop photovoltaic projects installed and financed by private persons, account for powering of around 7 million households. Bundestag, the current parliament of Germany, is in the passing of long-foreseen reforms of its milestone energy laws. However, this presumptive legislation will enforce the 2000-enacted Renewable Energy Source Act and the reform may strike hard on small and medium-sized producers who then are obliged to compete with large producers in a not yet developed “green” transmission grid.


Background
During a day with perfect weather conditions up to 75 % of Germany’s electricity demand could be supplied from renewables. The household PV system installments including of energy cooperatives constitute to well over half of Germany’s renewable energy production upending the energy sector making it Europe’s most decentralized and community-driven. This would require substantial reconstruction of the transmission grid since many “green” producers are small individually and PV systems decentralized while wind power plants often are located across rural farmland and coastline unlike the powerful centrally situated power plants. The current German grid is built for the use of nuclear and the Big Four located primarily in the south industrial hubs. When nuclear still was an option a new grid was not a priority nor necessary but today it is of great importance and of urgency due to the fact that further nuclear plants will be shut down in 2017. (Hockenos, 2015)

The reform of Germany’s energy laws include centrally of cutting feed-in-tariffs that will disperse entirely by 2018 and replaced by a bidding system while incentives for new installations dropped significantly 2014. A producer guarantee is currently a fixed electrify price, FIT, for 20 years, which is essential for households and small-sized enterprises to secure an investment. However, the bidding system might serve as a control instrument for renewable energy expansion and will most likely change the profile of German energy producers where households and small-sized enterprises would not risk such a large investment without the FIT long-term security. (Bentham, 2015)


The future construction of Germany’s transmission grid needs be decentralized in order to meet the criterion of a functional grid also suitable for small “green” producers as well as building a line from north to south transmitting coastline and off-shore wind-generated power to the industrial areas. It seems that massive promotions and incentives for encouragement of investments of small systems has been done but not simultaneously developed a required grid in the areas in which these systems indeed are set up. There needs also consensus whether the grid is to take form of a super-grid or a smart-grid where the latter is ideal for multiple types of fluctuating small-scale renewable energies like solar and wind and matches up available power at any given time with demand. On top of the massive and urgent need of grid reconstruction, smaller producers needs the security of investment in for continuous increase of smaller systems and not be at risk at being outrivaled by larger producers.


References
Hocknos. P., 2015 Germany’s Renewable Energy Gamble The Environmental Magazine Acquired 2015-10-19 from
http://www.emagazine.com/magazine/germanys-renewable-energy-gamble.pdf


Bentham. P, 2015 Germany Reforms Renewable Energy Law. Power Mag, 1 August 2015,  Acquired 2015-10-19 from http://www.powermag.com/germny-reforms-renewable-energy-laws/?pagenum=3

torsdag 8 oktober 2015

EV -  Untapped Energy Storage

Introduction
After more than a decade of development, technology improvements, research and promotion, electrical vehicles are still far too expensive to reach the plebs due to high EV battery cost, and number of sales pose just a fraction of conventional combusting engine vehicles running on petrol and diesel inter alia due to their much lower price on top of better refueling infrastructure and further driving range. Moreover, as the combustion engine’s efficiency seem keeping on increasing, it is likely that conventional vehicles will persist dominating the market for some time to come. This trend needs a turnover since Electric vehicles pose an important element of a future smart-grid.


Background

A key-issue in regards of why the electric cars are pricy and conventional combustion engine cars dominant is battery. The cost however for EV batteries has declined in the past three years from around $1000 to $350 per kWh and an estimate is that the price would drop even more by 2020 parallel to rapid sales-growth of electric cars pushing technology and production of EV batteries. (Nykvist & Nilsson, 2015) The battery capacity ranges from 20-50 kWh with a driving range of 80-350 km and time of charging is around six hours (Technology review, 2015). EV-charging load can be shifted to off-peak periods and thereby flatten daily load curve significantly reducing generation and network investment using smart grid technology (Morgan, 2012) In Sweden, however, the sale of electric cars has grown with around 90 % since 2009 and the number of electric cars was by the end of 2014 approximately 38 000 to be compared to conventional engine cars at a number of 3 million, a decrease with 12 %, and the number of conventional engine trucks at a number of roughly 600 000 units. Ethanol fueled cars is ten times larger in numbers than electric cars and the over all average increase of all cars in Sweden are 50 000 per year for the last five years. The average driving distance in Sweden is 12 000 km per year. (SCB, 2015)

Discussion and conclusion
The cost for alternative technologies such as electric vehicles needs decrease to a point where they can fully compete with conventional combustion engine vehicles and acceptance of new fuels needs to be gained. In time, manufacturers wrung out fuel efficiency gains from internal combustion engines and further progress depend on new propulsion technologies and energy systems. But in order to make this happen large scale significant incentives per vehicle need to be seen and a better refueling infrastructure developed. Governments need realize that grants and subsidies for investments in EV is a future investment that regardless needs to be done in order to structure a functional smart-grid. There is an egregious energy storage alternative in electric vehicle batteries. Say half of the Swedish vehicle fleet would be electric cars, then the battery storage capacity would be 1 500 000 times 35 kWh. That is 52 500 MWh. Since the mean driving distance is 12 000 km per year the effective driving time is only 150 hours (assuming average speed 80 km / h). That leaves roughly 8500 hours of “passive parking”, e.g. energy storage time. This shows the importance of reinforcing and investing in the electric vehicle fleet and its important part in the future smart-grid.

References 
Morgan, T., 2012. Smart Grid and electric vehicles. International Transport Forum. Acquired 2015-10-06 from
http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/discussionpapers/dp201202.pdf

Nykvist, B. & Nilsson, M., 2015. Climate home. Acquired 2015-10-06 from
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/03/23/falling-battery-prices-boost-outlook-for-electric-vehicles/

SCB, Statistiska Centralbyrån, 2015. Fordonsstatistik.
Acquired 2015-10-06 from
http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Statistik-efter-amne/Transporter-och-kommunikationer/Vagtrafik/Fordonsstatistik/#c_undefined

Technology review, 2015. The Price of batteries. Acquired 2015-10-07 from
http://www.technologyreview.com/sites/default/files/legacy/jan11_feature_electric_cars_p61.pdf