torsdag 17 september 2015

Energiewende – Negative impact on electricity price?

A quick review of the German Energiewende
The term “Energiewende”, e.g. energy changeover, was first introduced in the 1970s by nuclear opponents alleging that alternative energy sources were feasible and is an attempt to propose a holistic solution including of renewable energy and energy efficiency. A 1980 study by the German Institute for Applied Ecology was one of the first to argue that economical growth could be obtained parallel with lower energy consumption whilst antecedent publications merely comprised warnings but without specific solutions. Fundamental historical disasters in regards of nuclear such as Chernobyl in 1980 and Fukushima in 2011 spurred the plans of the German nuclear phase-out, which is a central part of the Energiewende advocating nuclear to be too risky, too expensive and not being congenial with renewables. As a result of these plans of nuclear phase-out, eight plants out of 17 were shut down between 2011, the year of the Fukushima accident, and 2015. The aim is that all remaining plants in Germany are to be shut down by 2022 and the electricity gasp is to be filled by renewables, natural gas turbines, efficiency and conservation, demand management and the interim relying on conventional existing power plants. (energytransition.de, 2015)

The decision made by Germany to phase out nuclear power has been topical in other European countries while laws and policies to actually implement the transition have been an influence to others. However, Germany faces huge challenges economically, environmentally, socially and politically in order to follow out and achieving the Energiewende, which is awaiting a perspicuous policy framework still. A decisive egress is to determine at what cost the Energiewende is viable and from were the funds are to be raised. Currently an excessive increase of electricity prices has afflicted the domestic private households more than it has on the subsidised industry. An arising key-question is therefore how much more Germany can boost present electricity prices already being higher than in most other European countries. Whilst larger energy companies, such as European Vattenfall, argue that the electricity price increase would be immense, The German Institute for Economic Research predicts a significantly smaller price adjustment in order to finance the Energiewende. (Beveridge & Kern, 2013)

Is the Energiewende impact on electricity price all that negative?
It seems congenial in the arguments above that the price of electricity will increase during the Energiewende transition although not agreeing on how big an increase. All the same it should be no surprise implementing a milestone program such as out-phase of nuclear power will inevitably induce substantial costs. When a product or a service, in this case electricity, is produced at a higher total cost in favour of the environment, in order to minimize the risk of disasters and preventing future plant attacks, it would be more than justified that consumers accept the price adjustment. Especially when bearing in mind that technologies and efficiency most likely will improve over the years of transition hence leading to reduced prices. Could it be so that consumers have been accustomed to a too low price on electricity in comparison with the price development on for example petrol and diesel? It seems reasonable to begin value electricity more, make efforts in saving electricity and be willing to pay for it since we do not hesitate paying for motor fuel despite increasing prices and tax and for services that did not apply just two decades ago, e.g. cell phone, WIFI, television subscriptions and so on. In any case, a small price to pay for a big cause.

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